人工智能对劳动力影响的三种最可能情景

“生成式人工智能很可能是自农业革命和工业革命以来劳动领域最重大的变革。”

Well, hold that thought, please. This statement out of Accenture’s latest report on the workforce in 2024 may be just a tad over the top, since we’ve been hearing similar pronouncements about work since the dawn of the information revolution in the early 1980s. But there’s little doubt that AI will substantially alter and assist the way work is performed and delivered. Call it the latest phase in the ongoing information revolution.

好吧，先别太着急。埃森哲（Accenture）公司最新发布的《2024 年劳动力报告》中的这句话可能有点夸张，其实自 20 世纪 80 年代初信息革命爆发以来，我们就一直听到关于劳动领域的类似说法。但毫无疑问，人工智能将极大地改变和协助工作的执行和交付方式。不妨将之称为持续进行中信息革命的最新阶段。

The question is how exactly AI will transform work as we’ve known it, and how people will be affected. For starters, AI, as with all other technologies to come along over the decades, is seen as something being pushed down the throats of workers.

问题是人工智能究竟将会如何改变我们已知的工作方式以及我们会受到怎样的影响。首先，人工智能与几十年来出现的所有其他技术一样被认为是强加给工人的东西。

Just the opposite is true with generative AI, however. Just about all workers Accenture surveyed, 95%, see value in working with the technology.

然而，生成式人工智能却恰恰相反。埃森哲调查的几乎所有员工（95%）都认为利用人工智能技术干活具有价值。

But employees don’t trust the way their organizations will handle AI — for example, 60% are concerned about job loss, stress and burnout associated with the technology.

但是，员工并不信任他们的组织即将用于处理人工智能的方式，例如，60%的员工担心与人工智能技术相关的失业、压力和职业倦怠等问题。

In contrast, fewer than one-third of C-suite executives, 29%, feel job displacement is a worry for their people. There is “a disconnect between workers and C-suite leaders as organizations look to capitalize on the promise of generative AI,” according to Ellyn Shook and Paul Daugherty, the report’s authors.

相比之下，只有不到三分之一的高管（29%）认为他们的员工会担心工作流失。报告的作者 Ellyn Shook 和 Paul Daugherty 认为，“企业希望利用人工智能的好处，员工和领导者之间则存在脱节。”

Both executives and employees need to prepare for the broader sweep AI will take in the near future—and again, its ultimate impact on work is an unknown. All the business leaders surveyed—100%—anticipate changes to their workforce such as growing or reducing headcount and implementing plans to reskill, the survey confirms.

高管和员工都需要做好准备迎接人工智能在不久的将来带来的更广泛的影响，同样，人工智能对工作的最终影响也是一个未知数。问卷调查证实，所有接受调查的企业领导者（100%）都预计其员工队伍将发生变化（例如增加或减少员工人数）及要实施技能再培训计划。

Things have been moving fast—perhaps too fast for business leaders. “Gen AI took a few hours at most to capture the world’s attention,” Shook and Daugherty stated. “Gen AI’s swift adoption by enterprises and individuals alike underscores its ability to reinvent work, reshape the workforce and prepare people for a future that unfolds in real time.”

事情发展得很快，对企业领导者来说也许太快了。Shook 和 Daugherty 表示，“生成式人工智能最多只花了几个小时就吸引了全世界的目光。生成式人工智能被企业和个人迅速采用，凸显了其重塑工作、改造劳动力以及帮助人类准备好拥抱实时展开的未来的能力。”

While the current generation of AI has addressed relatively narrow tasks and roles, the next phase will focus on “redesigning processes across organizations, as well as how people experience work,” Shook and Daugherty stated. However, two-thirds of executives admit they do not yet have the right skills and capabilities needed to carry out such reinvention.

Shook和Daugherty表示，当前这一代人工智能可以解决相对狭窄的任务和角色，下一阶段的重点将是“重塑整个组织的流程以及大家体验工作的方式”。然而，三分之二的高管承认，他们还不具备进行这种重塑所需的正确技能和能力。

Plus, executives don’t trust that their workers are ready for AI—36% believe workers will not fully embrace generative AI due to a lack of technological understanding, the survey shows. Yet most workers (82%) believe they grasp the technology, and 94% are confident they can develop the needed skills.

此外，高管们不相信他们的员工已经为人工智能做好了准备，问卷调查显示，36% 的高管认为，由于缺乏对技术的了解，员工不会完全接受生成式人工智能。然而，大多数员工（82%）则认为他们掌握了这项技术，94%的人相信他们能够发展所需的技能。

In addition, while more than half of workers, 53%, are concerned about the quality of output of generative AI, only 21% of C-suite leaders say trusting the quality of output is a concern for their people.

另外，超过半数（53%）的员工对生成式人工智能的产出质量表示担忧，而只有 21% 的高管领导者表示信任产出质量是他们的员工所关心的问题。

The growth of AI needs to be a collaborative, user-guided, _human-guided_ process. Companies in the survey successfully taking the lead with generative AI—9% of the sample—“are breaking out of silos and building trust among their people by actively involving them in redesigning their work and roles.” Plus, these leaders who put people first—supported by AI—could create .3 trillion in global economic value.

人工智能的发展需要是一个协作的、用户引导的、人类引导的过程。问卷调查中成功地率先使用了生成式人工智能的公司（样本的9%）“正在打破壁垒，通过让员工积极参与工作和角色的重新设计，在员工之间建立信任”。此外，这些以人为本的领导者——在人工智能的支持下——可以创造10.3万亿美元的全球经济价值。

Accenture based its insights on economic modeling of data related to gen AI, along with surveys of more than 7,000 C-suite executives and 5,000 workers at large organizations.

埃森哲的上面的见解基于对人工智能相关数据的经济建模，以及对7000多名C级高管和5000多名大型企业员工的问卷调查。

A people-first approach has yet to percolate through corporate ranks. While 95% of workers are ready and willing to embrace generative AI, only 5% of organizations are providing training at scale. The emphasis needs to be on “increasing people’s proficiency, and level of comfort, with the technology,” Shook and Daugherty urged.

以人为本的方法尚未渗透到企业层次。95% 的员工已经准备好并愿意接受生成式人工智能，而只有 5% 的企业正在提供大规模培训。Shook和Daugherty敦促要把重点放在“提高人们对人工智能技术的熟练程度和舒适水平”上。

Three likely scenarios are now emerging that may determine AI’s ultimate impact on work in the latter half of the 2020s decade:

目前可能出现的三种情景将决定人工智能在 21 世纪 20 年代后半段对工作的最终影响。

* **The aggressive adoption scenario:** Organizations will focus “entirely on cutting costs through gen AI, adopting the technology quickly (full adoption within five years), and displacing talent at a high rate. Displaced talent would transition to jobs similar to the ones they held, roles of equal likelihood for displacement, resulting in increased unemployment.”

积极采用情景： 一众组织将重点放在“完全通过生成式人工智能削减成本上，快速采用该技术（五年内全面采用），并以较高的速度取代人才。被取代的人才将转而从事与他们原来所从事的工作类似的、同样容易被取代的职位，从而导致失业率上升”。

* **The cautious adoption scenario:** Organizations will focus on “automating and augmenting work with gen AI, adopting the technology slowly and cautiously to avoid displacing talent (full adoption within the next 15 years), but without a focus on creating people-centric approaches and organizations.”

谨慎采用情景：组织将重点放在“利用生成式人工智能实现自动化和增强工作上，缓慢而谨慎地采用该技术（在未来15年内全面采用），以避免人才流失，但不再注重创建以人为本的方法和组织”。

* **The people-centric adoption scenario:** Organizations will focus on “augmenting work with gen AI, while also leveraging automation use cases effectively. As they adopt the technology at a moderate pace (fully within 10 years), talent displacement is ultimately low because effort is placed on creating people-centric approaches and organizations to support both existing workers whose jobs are changing, and new workers displaced due to automation and moving into new roles.”

以人为本采用情景：组织将重点放在“利用生成式人工智能增强工作能力上，同时有效地利用自动化用例，采用该技术的速度适中（10 年内完全采用），人才流失率最终会很低，原因是在创建以人为本的方法和组织方面做了大量努力，目的是支持工作岗位正在发生变化的现有员工以及因自动化而被淘汰并被迫转换新角色的新员工”。

More than half of the forward-looking leaders in the survey—who ascribe to the people-centric scenario—are taking action to reshape the workforce by redesigning jobs and roles around generative AI. Three-quarters are enabling their workers to help shape these new ways of working.

超过一半的在问卷调查中持以人为本的观点前瞻性领导者正在采取行动，通过围绕生成性人工智能重新设计工作和角色来重塑员工队伍。四分之三的企业正在让他们的员工参与塑造这种新的工作方式。

These leading companies are twice as likely to invest in growing people’s soft skills, along with tech skills, and twice as likely to anticipate workforce productivity gains of 20% or more in the next three years, Accenture predicted.

埃森哲预测，这些领先企业更有可能在提高员工软技能和技术技能上投入，可能性是其他企业的两倍，这些企业预计未来三年劳动力生产率提高20%或更多，可能性也是其他企业的两倍。